Forecasting demand for natural gas in Colombia

Is it possible to accurately forecast demand?

Project details

  • Client

    Promigas.
  • Services

    Development of models to forecast the demand of natural gas. Application to evaluate the effect of alternative forms of price regulation.

  • Team in charge

    Marcela Meléndez

    Mauricio Martignon

  • Year

    In progress
  • Categories

Project summary

Investment decisions in the Colombian Natural Gas industry are based on information that is often wanting. In particular, models of demand peridically put forth by the government authority in charge of energy planning -UPME- to inform decision-making are too aggregate and not a good enough input to reduce uncertainty and ensure the chosen route is the best for both private business and industry development.
 
Promigas wants to develop its own forecast models to have more precise analytical tools to answer the questions that arise in the business‘ planning and decision-making processes, and to give feedback to the public agencies that monitor and regulate the industry.
 
Also, Natural Gas transport regulation in Colombia often works against industry growth and development. For this reason, the firm wants a careful evaluation of the current regulatory framework and an analytical discussion about the alternative shapes regulation could take, to open a conversation with the regulation authority, CREG.

Highlights

  • It is a long-haul project. Forecast models will be validated and adjusted working together with Promigas.